上海市区膀胱癌全人群病例对照研究.pdf

IncidenceTrendsAnalysisoftheCommonlyUrologicNeoplasmsamong ElderlyPeopleinUrbanShanghai,1973一1999 (Abstract) Objective:Toanalyzeincidencetimetrendsofurologiccancersamongthe elderlypeopleovertheperiod1973一1999inurbanShanghai. Methods:Theregisteredcancercaseswerecodedaccordingtothe3-digit rubricsoftheninthrevisionoftheInternationalClassificationofDiseases(ICD-9) Populationestimateswerebasedonperiodiccensuses,withage-andsex-specific annualestimatesderivedbylinearinter-andextrapolationfortheremainingyears. Theage-standardizedratesadjustedtotheWorldpopulationwerecalculatedfornine 3-yearperiods.Annualpercentchangesinincidencewereestimatedbymeansofa linearregressionoftherespectiveratesonthemid-pointsofthecorresponding periods,weightedbythenumberofcases. Results:Overthe27-yearperiod,cancersoftheprostate,bladderandkidney rosesubstantiallyamongelderlymaleresidentsinShanghai.Theannualpercent geswere6.60%,1.15%and5.30%,respectively.Amongtheelderlywomen,the rateofkidneycancerincreasedrapidly,withtheannualpercentchangeof4.87%. Womenaged75yearsandoverhadsubstantialincreaseinincidenceratesofbladder cancer. Conclusions:From 1973to1999,theincidenceratesofcommonlyurologic cancersincreasedsubstantiallyamongtheelderlyresidentsinShanghai,exceptfor femalebladdercancer.Furthersurveillanceandepidemiologicalinvestigationsare neededtoidentifyriskfactors,whichmightinfluencetimetrendsofincidencerates forthesecancers. KeyWords:UrologicNeoplasm;Incidencerate;Trends;Aging;Shanghai 引 言 随着我国经济的发展和医疗卫生条件的改善，居民平均期望寿命日益延长， 老年人口的比例也越来越多，2000年上海市 60岁及以上人口的构成达到了 18.29%。老年是肿瘤的高发期，而相对于其他疾病，恶性肿瘤所造成的寿命损 失和疾病负担也在不断增加，严重影响着老年人的生活质量(i1 近年来，国内利用肿瘤登记报告资料对全人群恶性肿瘤流行趋势进行了大 量的分析，而对老年肿瘤病人资料的分析非常少。根据上海市肿瘤登记处积累的 资料，我们分析了上海市区1973年一1999年前列腺癌、膀肤癌和肾癌在老年人 群中的发病率变化趋势，以期为老年肿瘤病因学或分析流行病学的研究提供线索 和基础数据。 资料与方法 一、病例资料的来源 全部发病资料取自上海市肿瘤