The Forecasting Theory, Methods and Application of Grain Production Ⅳ Theory, Methods and Application of Grain Estimating.docVIP

粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用 Ⅳ 粮食估产理论、方法及其应用 侯彦林 （中国科学院研究生院资源与环境学院，北京100049） 摘要：粮食估产的“通道—概率”理论和方法是：把属于最近通道的历年来的产量划分为五个气候年型，分别为丰产年、偏丰年、平产年、偏欠年、欠产年；计算产量出现在五个气候年型中的频率, 预测产量等于预测年各通道内平均产量与概率之积的和；最后在生长季节，通过专家经验、作物长势、气象状况参数修正预测产量。预报单元为全国、省、县。应用结果表明：预测国家尺度时，平均预测误差在2%以下，原则上不需要修正；预测省级尺度时，需要气候年型参数修正，修正后的平均误差一般低于3%；所提出的理论严谨、方法简单，参数少，参数来自原始数据本身，易于推广使用。 关键词：粮食；估产；理论；方法；应用 中图分类号：S11 文献表识码：A 文章编号： The Forecasting Theory, Methods and Application of Grain Production Ⅳ Theory,Methods and Application of Grain Estimating HOU Yanlin ( Resource and Environment Department，Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100049, P. R. China )Abstract: Channel-Probability Theory and Methods of grain estimating are: the historical production which belong to recent channel is divided into 5 climate types,they are fertility, slight fertility, average,slight shortfall,shortfall, the frequency（or probability）for the year appeared in 5 climate types is calculated, forecasting production is equal to the sum of multiplication of the probability and the average production within every channel for the forecasting year, finally in the growing season, forecasting production is corrected by the parameters of specialist experience, crop growth and climate conditions. Forecasting unit are the country, province and county. The result of application shows that the average forecasting error is below 2% for forecasting the national scale and in principle, the correct is not required. The average forecasting error, which corrected is below 3% for forecasting the province scale. The theory about is strictly, the method about is simplicity and the parameters is a little. Parameters are from the original data,so it is easy to use. Key words: Grain；Grain estimating；Theory；Methods；Application 我国粮食估产研究的代表单位为中国科学院的数学研究院，到目前为止已连续近30年预报全国粮食产量。所使用的方法为投入占用产出技术模型，提前半年预报产量，平均预测误差为收稿日期： 项目：中科院农业扶贫专项“我国作物生产潜力预测系统研究”、自然基金“吉林春玉米增产潜力研究”、中科院研究生院项目“粮食生产潜力分析预测系统研制”。 作者简介：侯彦林（1959～），男，吉林省人，教授，博士，博士生导师，中科院