基于核偏最小二乘法动态预测模型在 铜转炉吹炼中应用.pdfVIP

第 17 卷第 7 期 中国有色金属学报 2007 年 7 月 Vol.17 No.7 The Chinese Journal of Nonferrous Metals Jul. 2007 文章编号：1004-0609(2007)07-1201-06 基于核偏最小二乘法的动态预测模型在 铜转炉吹炼中的应用 宋海鹰，桂卫华，阳春华，彭小奇 ( 中南大学 信息科学与工程学院，长沙 410083) 摘 要：为实现铜转炉吹炼过程中的关键操作参数的准确预测，构造一种基于核偏最小二乘法的动态预测模型， 并提出一种适用于动态建模的在线式异常样本剔除方法。该动态预测模型使用滑动窗方法不断更新建模数据，再 利用核偏最小二乘法对动态模型的参数进行辨识，最后根据反馈的前次计算误差对本次预测值进行修正。仿真研 究结果表明：该动态预估模型具有较好的泛化能力和较强的鲁棒性，并具有较好预测精度(风量预测的相对均方根 误差小于 10%，氧量预测的相对均方根误差小于 19%)。目前，该预测模型被用于某转炉的吹炼辅助决策系统中。 关键词：动态预测模型；在线式异常样本剔除；核偏最小二乘法；关键操作量预测；铜转炉吹炼 中图分类号：TP 18 文献标识码：A Application of dynamical prediction model based on kernel partial least squares for copper converting SONG Hai-ying, GUI Wei-hua, YANG Chun-hua, PENG Xiao-qi (School of Information Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China) Abstract: In order to predict accurately the key operational parameters in copper converting process, a dynamical prediction model based on kernel partial least squares was constructed, and a method of online eliminating abnormal samples for dynamical model was presented. Firstly, moving widow method was utilized to update samples continuously in dynamical prediction model. Then, kernel partial least squares was used to identify parameters of dynamical model. Lastly, the prediction values were modified according to the last feedback computing errors. The simulation result shows that this dynamical prediction model has the performances like, better generalization, stronger robust, and preferable acc