基于弹性模型的供应链风险响应分析_李永红.pdfVIP

19 5 系 统 管 理 学 报 Vol. 19 No. 5 2010 10 Journal of Systems Management Oct. 2010 : 2010) 0505 308 李永红, 赵林度 ( , 21009 ) 供应链弹性是系统的 一种基本属性, 它直接影响着整 供应链系统的核心竞争力基于供应链 风险弹性分析方法, 构建了描述供应链弹性系统形变的数学模型, 研究在风险冲击作用下供应链系统粘弹性 变形值随时间的变化规律在此基础上, 进一步分析供应链系统在风险加载与卸载作用的响应行为以及供 应链系统崩溃的临界状态, 为供应链弹性研究提供了一种新颖而有效的方法最后, 通过M atlab 仿真软件 对理论分析结果进行仿真验证研究结果表明: 由供应链弹性驱动的系统形变是一 动态涨落破坏成长的 过程, 需要供应链成员共同塑造供应链弹性, 控制系统形变, 才能获得供应链竞争优势的持续性增长 : 供应链弹性系统; 风险响应; 系统形变; 风险管理 : F 224. 0; F 273. 7 : A Analyzing Supply Chain Risk Response Based on Resilience Model L I Yonghong , ZH A O L indu ( Institute of Systems Engineering, Southeast U niversity, Nanjing 21009 , China) Abstract Supply chain resilience is a basic attribute, and affects the core competence of the w hole supply chain system. In this paper, based on the supply chain risk resilience analysis method, it built a mathemat ical model of supply chain resilient system, and researched the changing rules of supply chain system resili ence deformation w hen the time changing under the impact of risk. Moreover, it analyzed the system re sponse w hen risk stroked the supply chain and w as eliminated, and the critical state of supply chain system disruption. It provides a novelty and effective w ay for supply chain resilience research. At last, it carried out simulation on the theoretic analysis by M atlab. T he results show that, the system deformation driven by supply chain resilience is a dynamic fluctuating and destructive grow ing process. Only w hen the supply chain members strive together, and shape the supply chain resilience, the competitive advantages of supply chain can get sustainable growth. Key words: supply chain resilience system; risk response; system deformation; risk management , 2001 ! 9. 11∀