BASS预测模型与库存控制集成的研究.pdfVIP

15 3 V ol . 15 N o. 3 20 10 6 Indu str ial Engineer ing and M anag ement Jun. 20 10 : 2010 BASS 徐贤浩, 廖丽平, 任 英 ( 华中科技大学 管理学院, 湖北武汉430074 : 根据短生命周期产品的特征调整BA SS 扩散模型, 将其应用于短生命周期产品的需 求预测, 同时考虑产品需求对无形变质和短缺拖后量的影响, 进而建立短生命周期产品多周期订货 模型通过算例分析获得短生命周期产品的成熟期开始时间和持续时间, 进而求订货次数和订货 量, 给出多周期最优订货策略数据实验结果显示基于BA SS 需求函数的库存控制模型可以提高 需求预测精确度, 有效降低库存成本, 对企业库存控制具有指导意义 : BA SS 预测模型; 短缺量拖后; 价值变质 : F253. 4 : A Integrating Study of BASS Forecasting Model and Inventory Control X U Xianhao, L IA O L iping , REN Y ing ( Schoo l of M anag em ent , H uazho ng U niversit y of Science t echnolo gy, Wuhan 430074, China Abstract: A multiperiod ordering m odel of sho rt life cycle product s w as proposed , and the BA SS f orecast ing mo del w as adju st ed accor ding t o t he charact er ist ics of short lif e cycle pr oduct s, and t he ef fect s of demand o n value det erio rat ion and backorder . T he start ing tim e and dur able tim e of t he product s mat ure tim e, the order t im es and order quantit y w ere obt ained fro m the numerical ex perim ent, t hen the opt imal or dering po licy w as proposed. T he numerical exper im ent show s t hat t he invent ory cont rol mo del based on BA SS f orecast ing mo del can im pro ve the predict io n accuracy of demand and reduce t he t ot al invento ry cost and it is co nstr uctiv e fo r practical inv ent ory co nt ro l. Key words: BA SS fo recast ing m odel; backo rder; value deterior at ion , , 1