滑坡临滑预报态矢量方法研究.pdfVIP

第30 卷第6 期 岩 土 力 学 Vol.30 No. 6 2009 年6 月 Rock and Soil Mechanics Jun. 2009 文章编号：1000－7598 (2009) 06 －1747－07 滑坡临滑预报的态矢量方法研究 姜 彤，王 伟，崔江利，陈贤挺 （华北水利水电学院资源与环境学院，郑州 450011 ） 摘 要：态矢量是统计物理学中对连续场进行粗粒化描述的一种方法。将其引入滑坡预报中，通过将滑坡危险区划分为n 个 子区域，在各个时间窗内对一系列子区域的监测数据进行态矢量分析，将监测数据与降雨量态矢量的模等归一化后叠加，研 究一段时间内滑坡位移态矢量的发展变化规律，并提出利用态矢量进行滑坡预报的新方法。以新滩滑坡为例，对累计水平位 移进行态矢量分析，发现在滑坡前态矢量的模和态矢量增量的模均发生了明显突变，按态矢量曲线的变化规律，依据滑坡预 警分级方法提出3 级滑坡预警，最高预警级别预报的滑坡时间比实际滑坡时间提前2 天。研究结果表明，态矢量的急剧突变 是滑坡发生的前兆，可以用来进行滑坡的短期和临滑预报。 关 键 词：态矢量；滑坡预报；归一化处理；新滩滑坡 中图分类号：P 642.22 文献标识码：A Landslide forecast based on state vector method JIANG Tong ，WANG Wei ，CUI Jiang-li，CHEN Xian-ting (College of Resources and Environmental Science, North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou 450011, China) Abstract: State vector is a method for describing coarse graining of continuous field in statistical physics. Introducing it into landslide forecasting, by dividing landslide hazard into n subregions, the state vector analysis is done to a series of monitoring data of subregion in every time window; through stacking modules of rainfall and monitoring data state vector after normalization, development and variations of state vectors of landslide displacements in a period are studied; and a new method is proposed to forecast landslide by using state vector. Taking Xintan Landslide for example, accumulative horizontal displacement is analyzed by state vector; it is found that the modulus and the incremental modulus of sate vector both make mutation before the landslide obviously, according to the