中国城镇化率与旅游发展指标面板数据分析.pdfVIP

科技广场 2014.3 中国城镇化率与旅游发展指标面板数据分析 Analysis of Tourism Development Panel Data and Urbanization Rate of China 郝 飞 Hao Fei （华侨大学旅游学院， 福建 泉州 362021 ） （College of Tourism ， Huaqiao University ，Fujian Quanzhou 362021 ） 摘 要 ：城镇化是拉动内需的重要驱动力，截至 2011 年中国城镇化率已达到 51.27% ，城镇化与旅游发 展的相关性值得探讨。 通过收集 2005—2009 年间全国 31 个省级行政单位的城镇化率以及旅游业发展主要 指标数据，利用 stata 软件进行面板数据分析，发现各地区城镇化与国际旅游外汇收入、星级酒店床位数、旅 行社单位数、旅行社组团国内旅游者人天数四项指标成正相关 ；而与接待入境旅游人数、旅游业从业人数、 旅行社接待国内旅游者人天数情况成负相关关系。 并根据数据分析结论建立城镇化与旅游发展相关性概念 模型。 关键词 ：旅游；城镇化；面板数据；相关性模型 中图分类号： F224 ；F299.27 ；F592.7 文献标识码 ：A 文章编号 ：1671-4792（2014 ）03-0170-06 Abstract ：Urbanization is the one of the main driving forces to stimulate domestic demands. The urbanization rate in China has reached 51.27% in the year of 2011. The interactive relationship between urbanization and tourism development is worth exploring. By collecting the urbanization rate and the main indicators data of tourism development between 2005 and 2009 of 31 provinces, this paper analyzes the panel data with the use of stata software. The results show that the urbanization has a positive correlation with the international tourism for- eign exchange earnings, the amount of beds in Star hotel, the number of travel agency and the number of person and days of domestic tour organized by travel agency, but has a negative correlation with the reception of the num- ber of inbound tourism, the employment in tourism and the number of person and day of domestic tour organized by travel agency. We build a related conceptual model of urbanization and tourism based on data analysis. Keywords ：Tourism ；Urbanization ；Panel Data ；Relevance Model 0 引言 平稳的推进城镇化进程 ， 处理好城镇化与经济、社 城镇化是指农村人口转化为城镇人 口的过程，