我国城镇小康生活水平评价指标体系构建及发展阶段研究.pdfVIP

实证研究 我国城镇小康生活水平评价指标体系构建及发展阶段研究 我国城镇小康生活水平评价指标体系构建及 发展阶段研究 王 青 张 峁 摘 要：小康社会是一个上承温饱社会，下启基本实现现代化的阶段，是实现现代化建设第三步战略目标必 经的重要发展阶段。本文从经济发展、物质生活、精神生活、人口素质、生活环境与社会保障等五个方面构 建城镇小康生活评价指标体系，对我国 1981～2007 年的数据进行整理，得出各年的小康进程趋势图，并用 Fisher 最优分割法对1981～2007 年进行阶段分析。实证研究结果发现：我国城镇小康生活经历了三个发展阶 段, 目前我国正处于第三阶段，据此提出新的发展阶段下，我国城镇小康生活的发展思路及其相应宏观经济 政策。 关键词：层次分析法；最优分割法；小康；指标体系；发展阶段 The Establishment of the Evaluation Indicatior System of China ’s Urban Sufficiency of Food and Clothing and the Research in its Development Stage Wang Qing ，Zhang Mao Abstract: The well-off society is a stage between the society with sufficient food and clothing and the one basically realized modernization. It is an important development stage of the realization of the third strategic goal in the modernization drive. The paper proceeds from the five aspects of econmic development, physical life, spirital life, populaion quality, living environment and social guaratee to establish the urban sufficiency of food and clothing evaluation indicator system, and sorts out the date of China from 1971 to 2007. It gets the well-off trend of the years, and applies the Fisher optimum partition method to analyze the stages from 1981 to 2007. The empirical results show that the urban well-off life in China has gone through three stages, and at present China is in the third stage. Therefore, the paper puts forward the development road and the macro -policies to the urban well -off life under the new development stage. Keywords: layer analysis method, optimum partition method, well-off, indicator system, development stage 作者简介：王青，1964 年生，辽宁沈阳人，经济学博士，辽宁大学经济学院教授，博士生导师；张峁， 1984 年生，辽宁新民人，辽宁大学数量经济学专业硕士研究生。 1 引言 兴的社会发展阶段。所谓小康水平，是指在温饱的 小康社会是一种社会理想，是经济发展、政治