我国城市化和住宅建设关系研究.pdfVIP

我国城市化与住宅建设的关系研究 黄安永，张波，钟国贺 （东南大学物业管理研究所 E-mail: ayh1950@ 电话: +86-25） 摘要：本文利用计量经济学软件EViews 5.0，对我国 1988～2007 年间城市化率和城镇新建住宅面积作了实 证研究。研究表明，在我国，长期来看，二者存在长期协整关系，但不具有因果关系；短期来看，均衡关系由短 期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较快。城镇新建住宅面积对城市化率相对更加敏感，受城市化率的影响更为显著。 这为房地产健康可持续发展提供了理论依据。 关键词：城市化 住宅建设 协整检验 Granger 检验 脉冲响应 An Empirical Study on Urbanization and Residential Construction in China HUANG An-yong, ZHANG Bo, ZHONG Guo-he (Property Management Research Institute, Southeast University E-mail: ayh1950@ Tel.: +86-25 Abstract: The empirical study on the urbanization ratio and urban newly-built residential areas of China over the period 1988-2007 has been conducted using EViews 5.0. The study shows that there is a long-term co-integration relationship rather than the Granger causality relationship between urbanization ratio and urban newly-built residential areas in China, but the speed of adjusting short-run departure to long-run equilibrium is fast in the short term. The study also shows that urban newly-built residential areas is relatively more sensitive to urbanization ratio, and the impact on urban newly-built residential areas affected by urbanization ratio is more significant. These may provide theoretical basis for the sustainable development of real estate. Key words: urbanization residential construction co-integration test Granger test impulse response 1 引言 由于世界金融危机的影响，中国的房地产业受到极大冲击，2008 年我国楼市销售持续低迷， 突出表现在成交量的急剧萎缩，房屋销售量与销售额大幅下挫。国家统计局发布的数据显示，2008 年全国商品房的销售额和销售面积比上年均有不同程度的萎缩，且下滑的幅度较大，其中住宅商 品房销售面积同比减少20.3