地下水模拟不确定性分析_吴吉春.pdfVIP

() 47 　3 Vol.47, No.3 　　　JOURNAL OF NANJING UNIVERSITY 　　　　 20115 May 2011 (NATURAL SCIENCES) ， ＊ ＊＊ 吴吉春 , 陆　乐 (, , 210093) 　:　, ., ., 、 , , ., , . :　, , , :　P 641 Uncertainty analysis for groundwater modeling Wu J i -Chun,L u Le (epartment of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China) Abstract:　The reliability of groundwater modeling is vulnerable to many uncertain factors.Thus, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainties in groundwater modeling.These uncertainties are divided into three categories:parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and information uncertainty, while each is illustrated and analyzed respectively. Then the common methods of uncertainty analysis for groundwater modeling as well as the recent advances of this topic in China are reviewed.In addition, an example of quantification of uncertainty in conceptual model is presented, which indicates that errors in model structure can result in critical increase of uncertainty in model results. Key words:　groundwater modeling, uncertainty, Bayesian method, M arkov-chain Monte Carlo ＊: :2010-11-22 ＊＊, E-mail:jcwu@nju.edu.cn ·228 · ()　　　　　 47 　　, ), , . ;(2) ,、 .- , (representative element volume, .