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七宗罪的记忆方法:因、果、证
将七宗罪分类整理了一下,按照论证的原因、结果、论证过程三部分,归为三个类别:
1、因 (3)
Survey is doubtful可疑调查:
Insufficient samples样本不足:
Gratuitous assumption结论无据: without any evidence to rule out the possibility
2、果(2)
Causal over-simplification无因果联系: A coincides with B, not prove A cause B
Either-or choice二者择一: A and B mutually exclusive, no room for a middle ground
3、证(2)
错误类比(横向)时地全等(纵向)
这样,只要记住了三字诀:因、果、证,就很容易记牢全部七宗罪了。
顺便分析一下本月JJ的一篇AA:
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. // 无因果联系,可能另有他因。Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. // All things are equal时地全等 Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.” // 结论无据
附:七宗罪
第一宗罪:无因果联系
The author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification. The line of the reasoning is that because A occurred before B, the former event is responsible for the latter. (The author uses the positive correlation between A and B to establish causality. However, the fact that A coincides with B does not necessarily prove that A caused B.) But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps C is the cause of these events or perhaps B is caused by D.
第二宗罪 样本不足(因) Insufficient-sample
The evidence the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it. One example is logically unsounded to establish a general conclusion (The statistics from only a few recent years are not necessarily a good indicator of future trends), unless it can be shown that A1 is representative of all A
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