卫生设施的定量决策方法g.pptVIP

Decision Making in Health Facilities卫生设施的定量决策方法 Chaojie Liu China Health Program La Trobe University Decision Making Process决策过程 Identify problems Specify decision criteria Develop alternatives Analyse and compare alternatives Select best alternative Implement choice Control and monitor results Complexity of Decision Making决策的复杂性 Most decisions are made under uncertainties Multiple indicators may have to be considered in decision making Ethical issues in making choice of one alternative over another Determine an Alternative Solution with Single Indicator采用单个指标选定方案 Maximin largest payoff in the worst circumstance Maximax highest maximum return Hurwitz weighted choice between Maximin and Maximax Laplace highest average Minimax regret lest opportunity loss Case Study个案研究 Problem unmet demands of MRI scan Alternatives Buy one MRI unit Buy two MRI unit Outsource Do nothing Key Questions Considered in the Decision Making决策过程中要考虑的关键问题 Profits are associated with volume of demands How many extra demands would likely to occur? What are the gains (or loss) if doing nothing? What are the gains (or loss) by doing something? Payoff Table for Decision Making决策收益表(×1000$) Maximin Solution低风险最大收益方案 Maximax Solution高风险最大收益方案 Hurwitz Solution风险收益权衡方案 Laplace Solution平均法方案 Weighted Laplace Solution加权平均法方案 Minimax Regret Solution收益最小后悔方案 Weighted Minimax Regret Solution加权收益最小后悔方案 Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)采集完美信息的预期价值 How much should be invested in collecting perfect information for a decision under certainty? EVPI = Best Outcome Under Certainty – Largest Average Weighted Outcome EVPI Decision with Multiple Attributes考虑多种依据的决策 Eliminate Supplier Who Does not Meet Minimum Acceptable Level首先剔除不符合最低标准的方案 Consider Most Important Attributes First 然后优先考虑最重要的特性 Weighted Average Score加权平均法 Reference参考文献 Ozcan Y. A. (2006). Quantitative methods in health care management: techniques and applications. San Francisco: Jessey-Bass * 明确问题 细化决策依据 提出多种备选方案 分析比