我国通货膨胀与农产品价格_经济增长动态关系分析.pdfVIP

我国通货膨胀与农产品价格、 经济增长动态关系分析 1,2 1 1 刘勇 王伟 易法海 （1.华中农业大学，武汉 430074； 2.武汉科技大学，武汉 430065） 摘要：文章运用VAR方法研究通货膨胀、农产品价格、经济增长互相之间的影响。研究发现：（1）GDP的增长有很强的惯 性，GDP受CPI和API的影响非常小，而对CPI和API的影响是决定性的。（2）CPI也有很强的惯性，表明通货膨胀一旦发生就不 易控制；CPI受GDP的影响很大，受API的影响可以忽略不计；CPI对经济增长有一定的影响，对API的影响也较大。（3）API主 要受GDP和CPI的影响，但自身也有滞后影响；API对GDP和CPI的影响可以忽略不计。由此可以发现，我国目前过高的经济增长 是以偏高的CPI和API为代价，而且是高的CPI导致了高的API。 关键词：经济增长；通货膨胀；农产品价格；VAR Dynamic Relations Analysis between China’s Inflation, Agricultural Products and Economic Growth 1, 2 1 1 LIU Yong , WANG Wei , YI Fahai (1. Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430074, China; 2. Wuhan University of Science Technology, Wuhan 430065, China) Abstract: This paper applies VAR to study relations between inflation and agricultural products, economic growth. We find that: 1) GDP growth has strong inertia, and it is influenced little by CPI and API, but has decisive influence on CPI and API; 2) CPI also has strong inertia, which shows that if inflation happens it will not be easily controlled. CPI is influenced greatly by GDP, and little by API. While CPI has certain influence on economic growth, has great influence on API; 3) API is mainly influenced by GDP and CPI, also has self lag-influence. Influence aroused by API to GDP and CPI can not be considered. So, China’s nowadays high economic growth pays price for a little higher CPI and API, and high CPI leads to higher API. Key words: economic growth; inflation; agricultural products; VAR 近年来的物价上涨引起了广大消费者的严重关注，已经形 胀的成因，认为“经济增长的大环境客观上带来价格上涨的 成了明显的通货膨胀势头。衡量通货膨胀程度的指标①—居 压力”；徐田江和陈丹丹[2]认为目前的通货膨胀是我