生态环境基础设施项目投融资灰色GM_1_1_预测模型.pdfVIP

第 24 卷 第 3 期 工 程 管 理 学 报 Vol. 24 No. 3 2010 年 06 月 Journal of Engineering Management Jun. 2010 生态环境基础设施项目 投融资灰色 GM(1,1)预测模型 陶 萍，齐中英 （哈尔滨工业大学管理学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001 ，E-mail ：taoping616@126.com ） 摘 要：主要从生态环境基础设施项目分阶段融资需求分析入手，对投融资需求规模预测、适合的投融资渠道选择、具体投 融资模式确定等研究。构建了灰色 GM(1,1)环境项目融资需求预测模型；以 2000~2005 年环境基础设施投资总额数据资料， 对生态环境基础设施项目融资需求预测模式进行了预测，并对预测结果进行了检验。 关键词：生态环境基础设施项目；投融资；模式；预测；灰色 GM(1,1) 模型 中图分类号：F407.9 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1674-8859 （2010 ）03-294-05 Gray GM(1,1) Forecasting Model of Investment and Financing for Ecological Environment Infrastructure Projects TAO Ping ，QI Zhong-ying （School of Management，Harbin Institute of Technology ，Harbin 150001 ，China ，E-mail：taoping616@126.com ） Abstract ：On the analyses of the financing needs in phases for ecological environment infrastructure projects, this paper studied some investment and financing issues, including the need scale forecasts, the selection of appropriate financial channels and the determination of concrete investment and financing patterns. A gray GM (1, 1) financing forecast model was established for the environment projects. The forecast of financing needs was carried out for ecological environment infrastructure projects based on the data of total investment from 2000 to 2005. The predicting outcomes were tested. Keywords ：ecological environment infrastructure project；investment and financing ；pattern ；forecasts；gray GM (1, 1) financing forecast model 随着环境污染的日趋严重，国家对环保治理投 统计资料表明，我国从“六五”到“十一五”， 入不断上升。经环保总局测算，“十一五”期间全 用于环境保护的投资增加了不少，且投资额平均增 社会环保投资预计达到 1.375 万亿元，约占同期 长率为 152