对SARS疫情预测与控制的数学模型研究_一种基于一般流传病模型的改进方法.pdfVIP

1 4 2 Vol .14 No .2 2 0 0 4 2 　　　　　　　　　　China Safety Science Journal　　　　　　　　　　　Feb .2 0 0 4 SARS ——— 曾德荣 成晓红　讲师　黄吉安 (北京交通大学)　 (北京物资学院) :620.2060 【　】　笔者从 一个简单的传染病数学模型着手, 在考虑了SARS 病毒的规 和具体控制方法的影响因 素后, 对一般传染病疫情的确定型预测模型进行改进, 并引入 ρ、α及β等随机系数, 从疫情控制前、控制后、控后改 进来建立对疫情预测和控制的数学模型, 从而更加精确地刻画出SARS 的发展和传播规 、人们的控制方法与其控 制效果之间的关系, 给出了模型的算法, 并对其内涵及与疫情控制的关系给以评述。 最后, 用某地区实际数据验证 了控后改进型数学模型与疫情发展规 符合, 为定量研究这类传染病提供了简明实用的定量分析方法, 具有 一定 的现实意义。 【】　SARS;预测;控制;数学模型 Study on Mathematical Model for SARS Prediction and Control ———A Modification Based on the Model for General Infectious Diseases ZENG De-rong , Lecturer CHENG Xiao-hong 　HUANG Ji-an　 (Beijing Jiaotong University)　 (Beijing Material College) Abstract:　Starting from a sim le mathematical model for infectious diseases, considering the influencing factors of infectious regularity of SARS virus and its control method, the defined rediction model for general infectious diseaseswas modified, inwhich some random indexes such as ρ, αand βwere introduced.A mathematical model for e idemic rediction and control was estab- lished from before and after control and modification after control, which could more recisely define the develo ment and e idemic regularity of SARS, and the relationshi between the control method and its efficiency.The calculation of the model was rovided, the relationshi between its connotation and e idemic control was evaluated.The verification results with data from an e idemic area co ed with the real e idemic regularity.The model rovides a sim le and useful quantitative analytical tool for quantitative study of this kind of infectious disease, which is of realistic significance.