毕业设计（论文）-C++基于Garch方法的网络流量预测.doc

2010届毕业生 毕业论文 题 目: C++基于Garch方法的网络流量预测 院系名称： 计算机学院 专业班级： 计算机应用技术06级03班 学生姓名： 学 号： 指导教师： 教师职称： 2010 年 6 月 2 日 C++基于garch方法的网络流量预测摘要 随着网络技术发展、网络带宽的不断增加、用户数量的急速膨胀以及业务类型的多样化,人们经常会遇到网络拥塞和服务质量低等一系列问题，加强网络管理和改善网络的运行已成为当务之急。掌握网络行为的基本特征，发现网络行为变化的基本规律，构造出反映网络行为的数学模型。本是基于广义自回归条件异方差garch（Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedas）通过garch对网络实时流量计算出均值和条件方差来网络流量预测。 还构建了以UDP攻击的测试，测试的结果显示攻击流量异常预警信息，告知用户攻击，从而做到自我保护，提高网络质量。 关键字：预测，，异常网络流量，套接字 Network Traffic Prediction Based On Garch Model Abstract With the development of network technology,increasing network bandwidth,the rapid expansion of the number of users and diversification of business types,people often encounter the problem of network congestion and low quality of service, strengthening the network management and improveing the operation of the network has become a top priority.Mastering the basic characteristics of network behavior,finding the basic rule of changes in network behavior, creating a reflection of the mathematical model of network behavior is the inherent demand for network traffic prediction. The system is based on the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity garch (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasty model) model to predict traffic.The system uses the principle of the network through the listening socket to achieve the monitoring of LAN’s traffic, interception of network traffic and Statistics,then computing real-time traffic through garch model to obtain the average and conditional variance to achieve the prediction of the network traffic. The system tested, that can better predict the network traffic’s range.At last,we set up a experiment based on UDP attacking to test the system.The results show that the outlier traffic which was caused by attack, informing the user may be subject to network attacks