燃气管道失效概率评估方法研究.pdfVIP

3 1 4 Vol.3 1 No. 4 2 010 7 ACTA PETROLEI SINICA July 2 010 :(2 010) 040 66404 黄小美 李百战 彭世尼 张家兰 ( 400030) : 失效概率评估是燃气管道定量风险评估的关键内容之 一对基于专家估计的主观失效可 性评估方法和基于历史失效数 据统计或强度理论的客观失效概率评估方法的优缺点进行了分析, 提出了 一种主观方法和客观方法相结合的失效概率评估方法 采用历史失效数据统计方法, 计算燃气管道的平均失效概率; 采用层次分析法, 利用专家估计数据, 求得管道失效可 性, 并认为主 观估计的中等可 性等于历史失效数据统计的平均失效概率, 从而确定主观失效可 性和客观失效概率之间的关系式以埋地钢 质管道腐蚀失效为例, 阐述了这种失效概率评估方法采用主观估计法, 求得任意情况下的管道失效可 性, 利用主观可 性和客 观概率之间的关系式, 求出燃气管道的客观失效概率 : 燃气管道; 失效概率; 客观方法; 主观方法; 腐蚀失效 : T E732 : A Assessment methods of failure probability on gas pipelines H ANG Xiaomei LI Baizhan PENG Shini ZHANG Jialan (K ey L aboratory of Ecoenvironments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region of the Ministry of Education, Chongqing University , Chongqing 4 00 03 0, China) Abstract: The failure probability assessment (FPA) is one of the key quantitative risk assessments on gas pipes. The present paper analyzed both advantages and disadvantages of the subjective FPA method based on experts experience and the objective FPA method based on historical failure data or intensity theory, respectively. A new assessment method combined by the both subjective and ob jective methods was developed in this paper, and it adopted a statistic analysis on historical failure data to calculate an average failure probability of gas pipes and applied a hierarchy analysis on experts evaluation data to figure out a failure possibility of gas pipes. A relationship between the subjective failure possibility and objective failure probability was built up through this integrated analysis method that assumes the medium possibility of the subjective assessment equal to the average failure probability of the historical fail ure data. Taking the fai