基于PSR模型的北京市水资源短缺风险评价.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2013, 2, 188-195 doi:10.12677/jwrr.2013.23027 Published Online June 2013 (/journal/jwrr.html) An Assessment of Water Resources Shortage Risk in Beijing Based on PSR * Framework 1,2 1 1,2 Qiang Liao , Shifeng Zhang , Junxu Chen 1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 2Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Email: leostrong69@ th st nd Received: Mar. 27 , 2013; revised: Apr. 21 , 2013; accepted: May 2 , 2013 Copyright © 2013 Qiang Liao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract: Water resources shortage risk index system based on the “Pressure-State-Response” (PSR) frame- work is established and applied to assess water resources shortage risk level during 1986-2011 in Beijing city with the assistance of principal component analysis method. The research shows that Beijing has experienced a ten-year low flow period with high integrated value of risk since 1999; however, such situation became al- leviative since 2008. Utilization ratio of water resources and urban sewage treatment capacity are considered to be two of 14 indicators which have greater impact on water shortage risk. Even though the water resources