基于小波消噪的混沌神经网络月径流预报模型.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 64-70 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.13010 Published Online June 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) The Chaotic Neural Network Model of Monthly Runoff * Forecast Based on Wavelet De-Noising # Jianzhong Zhou , Juanjuan Zhang, Jun Guo, Yongchuan Zhang College of Hydroelectric and Digitalization Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Email: # jz.zhou@ Received: Apr. 29th th th , 2012; revised: May 17 , 2012; accepted: May 28 , 2012 Abstract: Runoff process is highly nonlinear characteristics under the synthetic action of weather system and underlying surface system. Considering the strong correlation and high complexity of runoff time series, the wavelet transform is applied to eliminate noise in the monthly runoff time series in this paper, of which the Lyapunov index method is used to recognize the chaotic feature of the monthly runoff time series. On this basis, the phase space restructure of chaos theory is used to calculate the best delay time and saturated em- bedding dimension of the runoff time series from 1882 to 2008 of the Yichang station. At last, taking the times series computed by the phase space restructure as the input of chaotic neural network model to get the proposed model by network training. Prediction results show that this model can process a complex hydro- logical data series better, and is of higher prediction accuracy and good prospect of engineering application. Keywords: Runoff Forecast; Wavelet Do-Noising; Saturated Embedding