毕业设计（论文）-BP人工神经网络对青岛电网短期负荷研究.docVIP

The study of short-term load forecasting model of Qingdao power grid 摘要 电力系统短期负荷预测Abstract Short term load forecasting of power system is one of the important components of the power system load forecasting, playing an important role in dispatching of Power system, Power consumption and power planning. Load forecasting of high-precision is guaranteed to improve power system economic benefit and social benefit. With the deepening of market of electric power enterprise, reducing power generation costs, improving the security and stability of power system is becoming the development goal of electric power enterprise. Short-term load forecast now become essential part of the electricity sector and will be given the higher requirements. This article describes the basic concepts, principles of Load forecasting and Composition and characteristics of power system load and current situation of Domestic and foreign power load forecast of Basic, and making a simple introduction of common load prediction model, Due to wide applicability and practicality of artificial neural networks, this article focuses on the BP algorithm of artificial neural network，and Select improved artificial neural networks for Qingdao power network short-term load forecasting. Forecast results satisfied and achieved the desired requirements. Key words Short term load forecasting Artificial neural network BP 目 录 前 言 1 第一章 绪论 2 1.1 负荷预测的分类 2 1.2 负荷预测的影响因素 2 1.2.1 时间因素： 2 1.2.2 地理因素对负荷预测的影响： 3 1.2.3 工农业等宏观产业用户因素的影响： 3 1.2.4 气候等因素影响： 3 1.2.5 随机因素： 4 1.3 短期负荷预测意义 4 1.4 负荷预测的研究和应用现状 4 1.4.1 时间序列法 5 1.4.2 回归分析法 5 1.4.3 小波分析法 6 1.4.4 专家系统法 6 1.4.5 组合模型法 6 1.4.6 灰色模型法 6 1.4.7 人工神经网络法 7 1.5 本文的主要工作 8 第二章 电力负荷概论 9 2.1 电力系统负荷的分类和特点 9 2.2 电力负荷的特性分析 10 2．2．1 电力负荷分量构成 10 2. 2. 2 电力负荷的周期特性 11 2.3 影响短期负荷特性的主要因素 13 2.4 电力负荷的特性指标 15 第三章 人工神经网络理论 16 3.1 神经网络简介 16 3.1.1 人工神经元模型 16 3.1.2 神经网络的激活函数 16 3.1.3 人工神经网络的分类 18 3.2 BP神经网络 19 3.2.1 BP网络的模型与结构 19 3.2.2 BP网络的学习算法 20 3.2.3