全球气候变化对高寒山区融雪径流的影响及其敏感性分析_穆振侠.pdfVIP

8 中国农村水利水电 ·2010 年第4 期 :1007-2284(2010)04-0008-04 穆振侠,姜卉芳 (, 830052) 　　　:以天山西部山区为研究区, 采用多种数理统计的方法以研究区1957-2005 年实测的水文、 象资料为基础 进行趋势变化及全球 候变化对降水、 温、径流影响的分析, 并借助 RS 和 GIS 以新安江模型为基础建立了研究区数 字水文模型, 并对2005 年融雪径流进行模拟。利用该模型结合不同的未来 候情景假设分析高寒山区融雪径流对 候 变化的响应和敏感性。 　　:RS/GIS; 候变化;融雪径流;高寒山区;新安江模型 　　:TV121.6 　　　:A The Effects of Global Climate Change on Snowmelt-runoffs in High Cold Alpine Areas and a Sensitivity Analysis of Them MU Zhen-ia, JIANG Hui-fang (College of Water Conservanc and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural Universit , Urumqi 830052, China) Abstract:The west of the Tianshan mountains is used as a research area.B using various methods of mathematical statistics and based on the available h drological and meteorological data between 1957 and 2005, the tendenc change and the effects of global cli- mate change to precipitation, temperature, snowmelt-runoff is anal zed.The digital h drological model based on Xinanjiang model is established b means of RS and GIS, and the snow melt-runoff is simulated during 2005.Using this model and assuming different fu- ture climate scenarios, the arctic-alpine mountain area snowmelt runoff to climatic change response and sensitivit is anal zed. Key words:RS/GIS;climate change;snow melt-runoff;high cold alpine areas;Xinanjiang model 　　, 。, 。 , , 20 0.6 ℃, , 。 [1,2] , 。 , 2 11.1 ～6.4℃ 。 , , , 1957 2005 、 , 、、、 、。 , GIS RS 。 ,