上海中小企业出口贸易波动研究_基于人民币升值和原材料价格上升视角.pdfVIP

2011年 02 月 F eb, 2011 ( 第25 卷第 02 期) East China Econom icM anagem ent ( V o l. 25, N o. 02 ) ∀ #DO I∃ 103969 jissn1007 - 509720 1102001 上海中小企业出口贸易波动研究 基于人民币升值和原材料价格上升视角 徐世腾 (华东师范大学 金融与统计学院, 上海 200241) [] 文章以 2006 年 4 月至 2010 年 3 月上海中小企 出口值为样本, 估计人民币实际汇率升值和原材料价格 上升对上海中小企 出口带来的冲击实证研究发现, 人民币实际汇率升值将会对上海中小企 出口带来显著 不利的影响, 而且负面效应在人民币升值半年后才得以逐渐消除; 短期内原材料价格上升造成的冲击并不显著, 但长期来说, 原材料价格上升会给上海中小企 出口带来负面影响 [] 中小企 ; 人民币汇率升值; 原材料价格上升 [ ] F 0615 [ ] A [] 1007 5097( 2011) 02 0001 04 The Research on Export of Shanghai Small and M edium Enterprises Based on the RMB Appreciation and Rising Raw M aterial P rices XU Shiteng (S chool of F inance and S tatistics, E as t Ch ina N ormal Un iv ersity, Shangha i 20024 1, Ch ina ) Abstract: T hrough the estab lishm ent o f error co rrection m ode ls and mi pulse response functions, the mi pacts o f RM B appreciation and r is ing raw m ater ia l prices on the exports o f Shanghai SM Es a re estmi ated from A pr il 2006 toM arch 2010. T he resu lts show tha t the RM B ap preciation w ill have sign if icantly neg ative e ffects on Shangha iSM E s exports and they w ill take 6 m onths to adapt to the RM B apprec ia tion. T he mi pacts of the r ising raw m a teria l pr ices on Shangha i SM Es exports is not s ignif icant in the short term, how ever they have a nega tive mi pact in the long term. K e words: sm all and m ed ium enterpr ises; RM B appreciation; r ising raw ma teria l pr ices , ,