第4讲--需求分析与需求估计.pptVIP

第四讲 需求分析与需求估计 主要内容 Health Care Cigarettes Raising cigarette taxes reduces smoking In Canada, $4 for a pack of cigarettes reduced smoking 38% in a decade But cigarette taxes also helps fund health care initiatives The issue then, should we find a tax rate that maximizes tax revenues? Or a tax rate that reduces smoking? 一、需求关系 需求表、需求曲线与需求函数。 消费者的基本问题——花得起的条件下最大化效用——需求函数。 价格变化引起需求量的变化。 收入效应； 替代效应。 耐用品与非耐用品 对生产者的派生需求。 Reasons that price and quantity are negatively related include: income effect -- as the price of a good declines, the consumer can purchase more of all goods since his or her real income increased. substitution effect -- as the price declines, the good becomes relatively cheaper. A rational consumer maximizes satisfaction by reorganizing consumption until the marginal utility in each good per dollar is equal: 二、需求的价格弹性 需求的决定因素厂商是否可控？这些因素变化对需求量的影响有多大？定量！ 案例3-1——两种不同机制：Ford Pizzahut。 价格弹性 Price Elasticity ED = % change in Q / % change in P Shortcut notation: ED = %?Q / %?P A percentage change from 100 to 150 is 50% A percentage change from 150 to 100 is -33% For arc elasticities, we use the average as the base, as in 100 to 150 is +50/125 = 40%, and 150 to 100 is -40% Arc Price Elasticity -- averages over the two points 二、需求的价格弹性 计算实例1—P63李维斯牛仔裤的需求弹性。 计算实例2—P63NBA公司索价。 案例3-2——《麦肯电讯》。 价格与收益的关系—— 表3-4。图3-2。 当需求弹性绝对值1时，价格上升（下降）将造成消费者的总支出的的增加（减少）。 当需求弹性绝对值1时，价格上升（下降）将造成消费者的总支出的的减少（增加）。 当需求弹性绝对值=1时，价格上升（下降）将造成消费者的总支出的的不变。 If ED = -1, unit elastic If ED -1, inelastic, e.g., - 0.43 If ED -1, elastic, e.g., -4.0 Perfectly Elastic | ED| = B and Perfectly Inelastic |ED | = 0 二、需求的价格弹性 边际收益与弹性的关系 MR = P ( 1 + 1/ED ) 总收益函数取最大值时，单位弹性+MR=0。 对任何需求弹性不足的产品，厂商都力求提高价格。 案例3-3——大众汽车入侵北美市场。图3-3。 影响弹性的因素 The availability and the closeness of substitutes more substitutes, more elastic The more durable is the product Durable goods are more elastic than non-durables The percentage of the budget larger proportion of the budget, more elastic The longer the tim