good软土路基全过程沉降预测的Logistic模型应用研究.pdfVIP

第31卷 第6期 岩 土 工 程 学 报 Vol.31 No.6 2009年 ….6月 Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering June 2009 软土路基全过程沉降预测的 Logistic 模型应用研究 1 2 朱志铎 ，周礼红 (1.东南大学岩土工程研究所，江苏 南京 210096；2.华东电力设计院，上海 200331) 摘 要：通过大量观测数据分析，研究了高速公路软土地基沉降曲线发展规律，沉降历时曲线一般经过发生、发展、 稳定后达一定极限，其表现形式符合成长曲线的基本形式。建立软土路基全过程沉降预测的 Logistic 模型，确定了模型 中各参数含义，分析了各参数对地基沉降不同阶段的影响、应用范围及其在实践中的指导意义。给出模型的求解方式， 讨论了模型预测效果，工程实例预测结果表明所建立模型具有科学性和适用性。 关键词：软土；路基；沉降预测；Logistic 模型 中图分类号：TU434 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000 –4548(2009)06 –0965 –05 作者简介：朱志铎(1963 – ) ，男，副教授，博士生导师，主要从事岩土工程的教学与科研工作。E-mail: zhuzhiduo63 @ 。 Application of Logistic model in settlement prediction during complete process of embankment construction ZHU Zhi-duo ，ZHOU Li-hong (1. Institute of Geotechnical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; 2. East China Electric Power Design Institute ， Shanghai 200331, China) Abstract: A large number of settlement observation data are analyzed and the laws of the development of settlement-time curve measured are studied. The settlement-time curve show the occurrence, development, stability, and then the limit of a certain form and that the form accords with the basic form of the growth curve. The entire process of settlement prediction model is established and the meaning of the parameters is analyzed. The influence of various parameters at different settlement stages and the application scope and its guiding significance in practice are analyzed. The evaluation of the model is ideal and the predicted results of several project examples show that