中国农业干旱的监测、预警与灾损评估.pdfVIP

中国农业干旱的监测、预警和灾损评估 1 *1,2 1 1 陈怀亮 ，张红卫 ，刘荣花 ，余卫东 1． 河南省气象科学研究所，郑州 450003 2. 河南省新乡市气象局，河南新乡 453000 摘要 根据以往的研究成果，综合论述了中国对农业干旱的监测、预警及灾损评估的研究与业务应用状况。对不同的 土壤水分监测方法进行了论述与对比，重点介绍了具有自主产权的 Gstar-IFDR 型自动土壤水分观测仪以及基于 MODIS 数据构造的土壤水分遥感监测新指数——农田浅层土壤水分指数(CSMI)，同时对中国的灾损评估进行了综合介绍。通 过对干旱发生发展的实时监测、预警及后期影响评估，最大程度地减轻了干旱对农业生产的影响。最后根据目前研究 中存在的问题，提出了将来的研究方向。 关键词 农业干旱；遥感监测；预警；灾损评估 Agricultural Draught Monitoring, Forecasting and Loss Assessment in China 1 *1,2 1 1 Chen Huailiang , Zhang Hongwei , Liu Ronghua , Yu Weidong 1. Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003，China 2. Xinxiang Meteorological Bureau of Henan, Xinxiang 453000, Henan ,Province, China Abstract The thesis, on the basis of the researches in the past, discusses the researches on agricultural draught monitoring, forecasting and loss assessment evaluation as well as its application status in China. While discussing and contrasting different soil moisture monitoring methods, the thesis also introduces Gstar-1 which is an automatic soil moisture observer with independent property right, and CSMI which is the new remote sensing monitoring index for soil moisture on the basis of MODIS data, and gives a comprehensive introduction to the loss assessment of China. Through the real-time monitoring, forecasting and assessment of draught occurrence and development, the thesis is dedicated to reducing the influence of draught to agricultural production to the largest extent. At last, on the basis of the problems in research, the thesis proposes the future research direct