efitsAssociatedwithBiotechnologicalPharmaceuticalCrops：生物制药的作物相关的好处.ppt

Risks and Benefits Associated with Biotechnological/ Pharmaceutical Crops Presented by Dermot Hayes February 22, 2005 Motivation Recent Cases of Contamination and Near Contamination Starlink 2000 Prodigene 2002 Industry Concern North American Millers Association BIO Conceptual issues and solutions A large number of possible avenues for contamination Solution: we focus on an avenue (pollen drift) that exists in the Cornbelt and not in other states We assume that weather stations are used in the source fields A zero tolerance is inconsistent with probability theory Solution: We use tolerances Conceptual issues and solutions “Harm” is difficult to define, most antibodies are safe for human consumption and detection is close to impossible Solution: We define harm as the possibility of contamination The wind conditions that cause one pollen to move will also cause others to move, this breaks the link between probability and the level of contamination Solution we measure the probability that tolerance levels are exceeded Conceptual issues and solutions The average consumer overestimates small probabilities Solution we express tolerances in terms of kernels per forty acre field, there are 540 million kernels in a forty acre field (90,000*150*40) We do not know which direction the wind will blow We conservatively assume that wind always blows in the direction of the field of interest Conceptual issues and solutions It is conceptually difficult to trade off risk against economic benefit Solution we express the risk as the fair value of an insurance product that fully indemnifies the owner of the target field The failure levels for biological controls is not known with precision Solution we assume a failure level of 1 in 100 for detasseling and male sterility Phases of Research Pollen dispersal model Calibration Insurance pricing mechanism Stochastic Modeling of Dispersion Description of wind behavior Lagrangian stochastic (LS) model Monte Carlo Simulation