Get Out the VoteCampaign Strategy.ppt

Get Out the Vote:Campaign Strategy Two more points about turnout! What predicts variation in turnout from election to election in the US? What predicts cross-national variation in turnout? In any given election, why might more people turn out? High media coverage Significant office Important issues Attractive candidates Competitive race Why Americans Don’t Vote(compared to people in other democracies) Alienation? Is trust the explanation? Responses to surveys about trust in government, voters nonvoters Why Americans Don’t Vote Alienation? (No) More frequent elections Voter turnout, presidential and midterm elections 1960-1998 Why Americans Don’t Vote Alienation? (No) More frequent elections Registration laws How can parties, groups, and candidate campaigns encourage people to vote who might not otherwise vote? Green and Gerber Methods? Experimental design: random assignment Door to door canvassing Weekend days, 4 weeks before election Paid canvassers, different races Green and Gerber’s methods Random assignment experiments CT congressional and state elections 1998 New Jersey State Assembly Race 1999 CT Mayoral Campaign 1999 Multi city presidential election study 2000 Multi city local elections 2001 Green and Gerber Methods? Benefits of experimental design? Controls for other individual characteristics Can tell whether treatment itself has an effect! Green and Gerber Methods? Benefits of experimental design? How did they try to motivate people? Appeals: P(V) = PB + D – C By voting, you provide evidence that your neighborhood is politically active, which will increase its political clout. (neighborhood solidarity) Voting is your civic duty The election is close, and there is a chance your vote might make the difference. There is an election coming… Green and Gerber: Findings Nonpartisans more affected by treatment Green and Gerber’s methods Green and Gerber’s methods Green and Gerber’s methods Green and Gerber’s methods Green and Gerber Is it an