Stat 13 Lecture 18Bayes theorem.ppt

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Stat 13 Lecture 18Bayes theorem.ppt

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Stat 13 Lecture 18Bayes theorem How to update probability of occurrence? Prior probability ( pi= prior for theory i) Posterior probability (updated probability for theory i ) Tumor classification Handwritten digit/character recognition ( data / feature) Prob (data | class i ) = (often given by experiments or by reasoning); suppose D is observed; denote prob by f(data=D | class= i ); then Prob (class i | data=D)= posterior for class i = pi f(data=D | class = i ) / sum of pj f(data=D| class j ) ; where j goes from 1 to k; k is the total number of classes HIV test Prob (Positive|HIV)=.98 Suppose Tom is tested positive. What is the chance that he has HIV ? .98 ???? What other information is needed ? * Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay assay (ELISA) test : gives a quantity called MAR (mean absorbance ratio for HIV antibodies) 88 297 total 21 0 12+ 36 2 6-11.99 15 2 5 -5.99 7 3 4 -4.99 7 15 3- 3.99 2 73 2- 2.99 0 202 2 HIV patients Healthy donor MAR Pro(positive| Healthy)= false positive rate =22/297=.074 *