死亡率预测模型的新进展_王晓军.pdfVIP

25 9 Vol. 25, No9 2008 9 Statistical Researc Sep. 2008 * 王晓军 蔡正高 : 20 , , , , , , : ; ; : F2223 : A : 1002- 4565( 2008) 09- 0080- 05 New Developments on Mortality Projection Model Wang Xiaojun Cai Zh nggao Abstract: In th past half c ntury, population mortality has obvious d clin tr nd in th world. Th proj ction by traditional mortality mod ls is g n rally high r than th actual l v l, which caus s s rious influ nc on th p nsion financial plans and cost calculation of annuiti s. Following th d v lopm nt trac of mortality mod ls, this pap r r vi ws and summariz s various mortality proj ction mod ls, th n giv s som comm nts on th n w d v lopm nts of mortality proj ction mod ls and puts forward som sugg stions on th s l ction of mortality mod l to forcast Chin s mortality. Key words: D t rministic mortality mod l; Stochastic mortality mod l; Wav l t transform x 一引言 , , ( x) = Bc , B 0, c , 1, x 0Gomp rtz , , , 1860 , Mak ham Gomp rtz , , , x (x) = A + Bc , B 0, c 1, A - B , x 01939 , ,W ibull , n , , , ( x) = kx , k 0, n 0, x 0 1980 ,H ligman Pollard , : , qx = A ( x+ B) C + De- E ( lnx- lnF) 2 + GHx px