Modeling the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong.ppt

Modeling the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong Modeling the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong We aim to construct a model of the SARS epidemic in community (i.e., we have excluded the outbreaks among health care workers or the “common source” outbreak in Amoy Garden. The model only applies to a person-to-person mode of transmission of SARS. Objectives of the Media Release: Explain the natural course of an epidemic – the relationship between the population that is infectious (including patients and infected individuals who will become patients), susceptible population and immune (recovered) population; Show how the natural progression of an epidemic is affected by the effectiveness and timeliness of public health measures, by introducing our mathematical model; Using the assumptions and limitations of our model, discuss the current situation in terms of the trend of the epidemic and the likelihood of its resurgence; Dynamics of disease and of infectiousness at the individual level Dynamics of infectiousness at the population level Basic Reproductive Number (R0) The average number of individuals directly infected by an infectious case during his/her entire infectious period In a population if R0 1 : epidemic if R0 = 1 : endemic stage if R0 1 : sucessful control of infection If population is completely susceptible measles : R0 = 15-20 smallpox : R0 = 3 – 5 SARS: ??? Basic (R0) reproductive number Basic (R0) reproductive number SIR Model Estimate of the 3 proportions changing over time t A close look at dS/dt = -? ? ? ? S ? I Assumptions of this model 1. the average household size is 3 (census data in 2001); 2. the interval between onset of disease and admission to hospitals is 5 days (based on the paper by Peiris et al. Coronavirus as a possible cause of SARS. Lancet online, 8 April, 2003);? 3. Once SARS patients are hospitalized, they are not able to disseminate the infection back to the community; 4. Patients are inf