Probability, Statistics and Errorsin High Energy Physics.ppt

Probability, Statistics and Errorsin High Energy Physics Outline Errors Probability distribution: Binomial, Poisson, Gaussian Confidence Level Monte Carlo Method Why do we do experiments? Parameter determination: determine the numerical value of some physical quantity. Hypothesis testing: test whether a particular theory is consistent with our data. Why estimate errors? We are concerned not only with the answer but also with its accuracy. For example, speed of light 2.998x108 m/sec (3.09?0.15) x108: (3.09?0.01) x108: (3.09?2) x108: Source of Errors Random (Statistic) error: the inability of any measuring device to give infinitely accurate answers. Systematic error: uncertainty. Systematic Errors Systematic effects is a general category which includes effects such as background, scanning efficiency, energy resolution, angle resolution, variation of counter efficiency with beam position and energy, dead time, etc. The uncertainty in the estimation of such as systematic effect is called a systematic error Orear Experimental Examples Energy in a calorimeter E=aD+b a b determined by calibration expt Branching ratio B=N/(?NT) ? found from Monte Carlo studies Steel rule calibrated at 15C but used in warm lab If not spotted, this is a mistake If temp. measured, not a problem If temp. not measured guess ?uncertainty The Binomial n trials r successes Individual success probability p Binomial Examples Poisson ‘Events in a continuum’ The probability of observing r independent events in a time interval t, when the counting rate is ? and the expected number events in the time interval is ?. More about Poisson The approach of the binomial to the Poisson distribution as N increases. The mean value of r for a variable with a Poisson distribution is ? and so is the variance. This is the basis of the well known n??n formula that applies to statistical errors in many situations involving the counting of independent events during a fixed interval. As ???, the Poisson distrib