Fossil Fuel Resources.ppt

Fossil Fuel Resources Dennis Silverman Physics and Astronomy U C Irvine I. Future of Fossil Fuels Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Oil Shale and Tar Sands CO2 Emissions Fossil Fuel Energy Units The Quad is 1015 Btu (British Thermal Units) Total U.S. energy use is nearly 100 Quad per year. A barrel of oil (bbl) is 5.8 million Btu. So 100 Quads is equivalent to 100 x 1015 / 5.8 x 106 = 17 x 109 bbl or 17 billion barrels of oil. A barrel of oil is 42 gallons. U.S. 20 Year Projections of Energy Use in Quadrillions of BTUs (Quads) Petroleum Fuel Future The fossil fuel supply is expected to follow a bell shaped curve as developed by M. King Hubbert. The peak in the curve of yearly supply is the important point. US oil production peaked around 1970. World population growth is expected at 1% a year. US energy consumption is increasing at 1.5% a year. The US imports 60% of its oil. Proven world oil reserves are about 2,000 billion barrels. Unproven reserves may boost this to 3,000-4,000 billion barrels. For world oil demand growing in the range between 0-2 percent a year, the year of the projected peak is shown in the next slide. (A lifetime here is 75 years.) The mean assessment of the reserves of the Artic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is 6 billion barrels (if the price is greater than $25/barrel). Oil Growth and Decline (1,000 Bbl reserves) Optimistic 3,000 Bbl of oil total resources. US Geological Service Superoptimistic Oil Plus Oil Shale  3,800 Billion Barrels Oil To Burn CERA Super Optimistic Oil Production Plateaus US Crude Oil Pipelines US and World Natural Gas US demand growth is 3% per year. A shortage now exists in the US and plans for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals for imports exist around the country (Ventura, Long Beach, Baja California) LNG could grow from 1% now to 20% by 2020. The graphs are for the time the supply will last. The units are in Quads (Quadrillion BTUs) The whole US energy consumption in all forms is 100 Quads per year. USA Natural