Observed Trends inSouth American Precipitation.ppt

Observed Trends inSouth American Precipitation * Brant Liebmann Vicente Barros Carolina S. Vera Julián Báez Leila M.V. Carvalho Anji Seth Inés Camilloni Marty P. Hoerling Dave Allured Mario Bidegain José A. Marengo If a flood is defined as monthly flow at Corrientes more than 2 standard deviations above its mean, there were almost 6 times as many floods in the 20 years from 1980-1999 as there were in the 60 years from 1920-1979. Previous work: Barros, Castaneda, Doyle (2000): Increase in precipitation over most of Argentina from 1956-1991. Castaneda and Barros (1994): Humid Pampa (Argentina) increase in rain, mainly after 1960. Robertson and Mechoso (1998): Decadal variability and non-linear upward trend in southeast South America rivers. Marengo (2004): Northern Amazon Basin decrease related to El Nino? Data We wish to thank the following agencies for providing the data used in this study: Agência Nacional de águas (Brasil) Agência Nacional Energia Elétrica (Brasil) U.T.E. Uruguay C.T.M. Salto Grande Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) FUNCEME (Ceará, Brasil) IAPAR - SIMEPAR (Paraná, Brasil) DAEE (S?o Paulo, Brasil) Minesterio del Ambiente y los Recursos Naturales (Venezuela) Meteorogische Dienst Suriname METEO-France ASANA (Bolivia) Observed Precipitation Climatology mm Observed Precipitation Trend mm/season Statistical Relevance of Observed Trends Observations versus AMIP runs January – March 1976-1999 mm/season 1976-1999 January – March standardized percent trend Stations with at least 22 yrs data Southern Brazil Average onset date = 25 October Average end date = 9 April 76-81 94-99 Rainy day average = 14.8 17.5 Percent dry days = 57.2 46.0 Trend in rainy day rain rate = 0.078 mm/day/season (There is no apparent trend in synoptic activity) Southern Brazil Simultaneous Correlation (SST versus Southern Brazil Rain) JFM SST trend (1976 – 1999) Slope: 1976 -