地下水数值模拟中的参数随机模拟.pdfVIP

25 6 2005 12 Vol . 25 No. 6 Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resour ces Dec. 2005 地下水数值模拟中的参数随机模拟 刘 猛, 束龙仓, 刘 波 ( , 210098) 从水文地质参数的随机性出发, 以滦河某拟建水源地为例, 采用地下水数值模拟软件GMS 建 立了参数随机模拟的数值模 , 并求得模 的随机解, 计算出模 的水位均值流场和水位标准差分 布. 结果表明在模拟非均质含水层二维流动问题中, 充分考虑渗透系数和给水度的随机特性的蒙 特卡罗法预测结果可靠, 比确定性方法更加科学有效. 地下水; 数值模拟; 参数随机模拟; GMS; 蒙特卡罗法 P333. 9 A 2005) Stochastic parameter simulation in numerical simulation of groundwater/ / LIU Meng , SHU Long cang, LIU Bo( College of Water Resources and Envir onment , Hohai University , N anj ing 210098, China) Abstract In consideration of the stochastic prop erty of hydrogeological param eters, the groundw ater numerical simulation software GMS w as adopted to develop a num erical model for stochastic param eter simulation of the water source site to be built near the Luanhe River. T he stochastic solution to the model was obtained, and the flow f ield of average w ater table and distribution of its standard deviation w ere calculated. The calculated results show that the MonteCarlo method, which takes the stochastic property of permeability coeff icient and specific yield into full consideration, is sup erior to the determ inate method. Key words groundw ater; numerical simulation; stoch astic param eter simulation; GMS ; MonteCarlo m ethod . 1 , , , . , ( ) , , , . , , , . . [ 1] , . , 2 . ! ( ) , . ,