产业结构调整对流域供需水平衡及水质改善的影响.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2009,29(7) ：767~772 China Environmental Science 产业结构调整对流域供需水平衡及水质改善的影响 1 1,2* 3 苏 琼 ,秦华鹏 ,赵智杰 (1.北京大学深圳研究生院,城市与人居环境科学与技术重点实验室,广东 深圳 518055 ；2.深港产学研基地,深圳环境模拟与污染控制重点实验室,广东 深圳 518057 ；3.北京大学环境科学与工 程学院,北京 100871) 摘要：基于系统动力学(SD)模型和水质(WQ)模型建立了描述深圳河流域社会、经济、水资源和水环境系统的耦合模型(SD-WQM).定量 分析了三产比例调整、工业结构内部调整及产业技术提升对流域供需水平衡和水质改善的影响.结果表明,三产比例调整对流域水资源平 衡有一定改善作用,但对流域水质变化不敏感;工业调整中劳动密集型产业的比重减少或技术提升、第三产业技术提升对流域的水资源平 衡和水质改善作用明显.根据各措施的敏感性,设计了可以满足流域供需水平衡与水质要求的综合调整方案. 关键词：产业结构调整；系统动力学模型；供需水平衡；水质改善；流域 中图分类号：X321 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2009)07-0767-06 Modeling effects of regional industrial structure adjustment on water resource balance and water quality 1 1,2* 3 improvement. SU Qiong , QIN Hua-peng , ZHAO Zhi-jie (1.The Key Laboratory for Environmental and Urban Sciences, Shenzhen Graduate School of Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China；2.Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Production and Research Base, Shenzhen 518057, China；3.College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China). China Environmental Science, 2009,29(7)：767~772 Abstract ：An integrated model (coupling system dynamics model with water quality model (SD-WQM)) was developed to describe the interactions among social development, economical development, water resource and water quality and apply to a catchment in Shenzhen river. The model was used to analyze the effects of adjustment of industrial structure of GDP and internal structure of secondary industry as well as industrial technology improvement on water resource balance and water quality improvement in the catchment. The adjustment of industrial structure of GDP might