基于理性预期条件下的宏观经济政策有效性分析.pdfVIP

2007 12 * 基于理性预期条件下的宏观经济政策有效性分析 Analysis of the V alid ity ofM acroeconom ic Polic ies under Conditions of Rational Expectation 赵春玲 胡建渊 ZHA O Chunling HU ianyuan ( 210003) [ ] 理性预期理论是最近二十几年在西方发展起来的一个新兴学 , 它的发展在一定程度上改 变了现代西方经济学的分析方法和理论结构本文从理性预期学 的起源和理论基础出发, 以理性预期的 视角探讨现代宏观经济体系中微观层面上个体行为与宏观层面上经济行为之间的内在联系, 认为政府在微 观经济主体具备良好理性预期能力的前提下, 宏观经济政策对经济的调节是有限的, 政府必须充分尊重并 合理引导微观经济主体的预期, 才能不断提高宏观经济政策的效用 Abs tract: A s a rising school develop ing in w estern w orld recent wt en ty years, the developm ent of rational ex pectation theory has to a certain extent changed them ethod of analysis and the theory structure ofm odern w estern e conom ics. Based on the orig in of rational expectation school and its theoretical foundation, th is paper from the v iew of rational expectation studies the internal relations of indiv idual behav ior in m icrocosm ic and econom ic actions in m acroscop icw ithin m odern econom ic system. This paper believes that the regulation ofm acroeconom ic policies to e conomy is lmi ited on the prem ise thatm icroeconom ic un its have good rational expectation ab ility, and on ly after the governm ent fully respects and properly guides the expectation ofm icroeconom ic un its can the effect of m acroeco nom ic policies be mi proved. [] 理性预期 宏观经济 政策效用 K ey w ord s: R ational expectation M acroeconom ics E ffect of policies [ ] F015 [] A [] 1000 - 1549 ( 2007 ) 12- 0075 - 05 , ,