安徽省气候变化对水稻生产的影响及应对w.pdfVIP

农业环境科学学报 2011,30(9):1755-1763 Journal of Agro-Environment Science 安徽省气候变化对水稻生产的影响及应对 1，2 1 1 1 2 2 2 许信旺 ，孙满英 ，方宇媛 ，何小青 ，薛 芳 ，付 伟 ，毛 敏 （1．池州学院资源环境与旅游系，安徽池州 247000 ；2．安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院，安徽芜湖 241000） 摘 要：收集了近30 年来安徽气温和降水资料，统计分析了安徽省气候变化的特征，讨论了气候变化对水稻生产的影响。研究结 果表明，近30 年来安徽气温整体呈上升趋势，上世纪90 年代以来增温明显。降水则表现为变率增大的趋势。当前全省处于气候高 变率时期。气候变化对水稻生长期及水稻产量均有明显影响，气候变暖下双季稻生育期明显缩短，在一定程度上对水稻产量产生负 面影响，极端气候事件对水稻生产产生了巨大影响。调整作物布局，加强极端气象灾害应对防范体系与能力建设是农业生产应对气 候变化的重要途经。 关键词：气候变化；极端气候事件；水稻生产；安徽省 中图分类号：X16 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672- 2043(2011)09- 1755- 09 Impact of Climatic Change on Rice Production and Response Strategies in Anhui Province 1,2 1 1 1 2 2 2 XU Xin-wang , SUN Man-ying , FANG Yu-yuan , HE Xiao-qing , XUE Fang , FU Wei , MAO Min （1.Department of Resources and Environment Science, Chizhou College, Chizhou 247000, China; 2.College of Territorial Resourses and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China） Abstract ：Using yearly statistical data, climate change features of Anhui Province was investigated and its impact on rice production was ana－ lyzed, the results showed that the mean annual temperature was in a uprising trend for the last 30 years, which was even faster since 1990s. Variability of precipitation was much increased and the overall climate condition was in a fluctuation status. Climatic change had some ob－ servable impacts on rice growth and yields of the province, including the reducing growing days for rice under double-cropping system. While warming had exerted adverse to extents varying with varieties and regions, extreme events could induce very intense hazards to rice growth and yields. To mitigate these impacts, spatial and temporary reallocation of crop cultivation, preventing drought and flood under extreme events should be adopted in agricultural deve