上海地区小麦赤霉病预报中温湿度指标的改进.pdfVIP

of 中国农业气象(ChineseJournal 上海地区小麦赤霉病预报中温湿度指标的改进’ 吴春艳1，李 军2 (1．北京市气候中心，北京100089；2．上海市气候中心，上海200030) 摘要：赤霉病是常见的小麦病害，温湿度气象条件对于小麦赤霉病的发病有着重要的作用，因此，在预报时选取合适的温湿度指标是获 得较高预报准确率的关键。本文采用上海地区1975—2007年的气象和小麦赤霉病资料，分析了小麦始穗期的变化；由于小麦始穗期普 遍提前，原来以4月中旬一5月中旬的平均温度≥15℃、相对湿度≥85％连续3d的天数为指标预报小麦赤霉病的预报准确率开始下 检验，新指标对小麦赤霉病的预报准确率明显提高，由60％提高到83．3％。 关键词：小麦赤霉病；预报；温湿度指标 of and IndexinForecastofWheatScabin ImprovementTemperatureHumidity WU Jun‘ Chun-yan‘．LI Climate Climate (1．BeijingCentre，BeijingMeteorologicalBureau，Beijing100089，China；2．ShanghaiCentre， ShahIghaiMeteorologicalBureau．Shanghai200030，China) scabisausualdiseaseofwheat．The and have effectsontheoccurrenceofwheatscab．Sothee— Abstract：The temperaturehumidityimportant and indicesisthe for exactnessrate．The of ofwheatwas change singpropertemperaturehumidity key acquiringhigherforecasting earlyheading thedataof andwheat andwheatscabdata．Asthe ofthewheat becameear- analyzedbyusing meteorologicalstages beginning earlyheadirtgstage forecastaccurateratedeclinedtheold werethemean above15℃andthemeanrelative 85％ lier．the by indexs，which temperature humidityby thatthe incontinualthree fromthesecondten of tothesecondten of and forecasttestsshowed days daysApril daysMay．Comparisonpractical three fromthe newindexwasthemean