景气形势_物价与宏观调控_利用STR模型对经济形势的分析（数量经济与技术经济研究.2010.08陈磊;李颖;张桂莲;317）.pdf

景气形势物价与宏观调控 % 3 % 景气形势物价与宏观调控 利用ST R 模型对经济形势的分析 1 1 2 陈 磊 李 颖 张桂莲 ( 1 东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心; 2吉林大学商学院) !∀ 本文 于改进后的经济景气分析系统宏观经济监测预警信号系统和 ST R 等多种经济计量模型, 对2010 年的经济形势进行了分析和预测预计 2010 年经济增长可能达到10% 1999 年以来, 物价随景气状况的改变呈现出状态转换 的非线性变动特征CPI 从2009 年4 季度开始进入新 一轮物价上涨周期, 预计 2010 年CPI 上涨32% , 出现温和通货膨胀, 但从2010 年4 季度开始物价上涨压 力有望逐渐减缓 经济周期 监测预警系统 ST R 模型 预测 F2240 A The Business Cycle, Price and Macro economic Regulating Abstract: In this paper, w e analy e and forecast the economic situatio ns in 2010 based on the improv ed business cycle analy sis system, macroeconom ic moni tor ing and early w ar ning system and the ST R modelThe conclusio ns show that e conomic grow th has been in the expansion phase of this business cy cle since the sec o nd quarter of 2009 and approaches the first peak of m inor cycle around March in 2010; T he CPI has been in the rising phase of this cycle since the forth quar ter of 2009 and the phase w ill last about one y ear; The annual CPI is expected to rise by ar ound 32% w hich is a moder ate inflation level Key words: Business Cy cle; M onitoring and War ning System; ST R Model; For ecasting , 2009 2 , 4 , 2010 1 GDP 119% , CPI 22%, # ∃ ? 2010 ( 2007R 17 ) ( W T 2010013) % 4 % 数量经济技术经济研究∋ 20 10 年第8 期 ? ? ? , # ∃ # ∃ , , ( ST R) 20 10 , ,