实例共同货币对国际贸易影响的Meta分析.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Andrew k. Rose and T.D. Stanley Presented by: María del Carmen Ramos Herrera. . Introduction Meta- Analysis across studies Publication Selection and Meta- Regression Analysis Conclusions My suggestions . Introduction: The purpose of this paper is to use meta-analysis method to summarize, investigate and more accurately estimate the common-currency trade effect. Meta-analysis can improve the assesment of this important economic parameter by combining all of the estimates, investigating the sensitivity of the overall estimate to variations in underlying assumptions, identifying and filtering out publication bias and later on use metaregression analysis( MRA). This meta-analysis confirms a robust, economically important positive trade effect from monetary union. . The current interest in the trade effect of common currencies began with Rose (2000) A panel of cross-country data covering bilateral trade between 186 different trading partners at 5-intervals between 1970 and 1990. Since most of the variation is across pairs of countries rather time, Rose uses a “gravity model of trade”. This resulting equation for assesing trade effects is the following: . Tijt : the natural logarithm of trade between countries i and j at time t. : set of nuisance coefficients Dij: the log of the distance between i and j Y: the log of real GDP Z: other controls for bilateral trade CUijt: dummy variable (currency union at t) U: well-behaved disturbance term : partial effect of currency union on trade (ceteris paribus) . The surprising and interesting finding is that currency union seemed to have a very large effect on trade. The coefficient for a currency union dummy variable has a point estimate of around 1.2 (Rose 2000). This estimate implies that members of currency unions traded over three times as much as otherwise similar pairs of countries, ceteris paribus