Motor Gasoline ModelMajor Developments and Issues课件.pptVIP

Motor Gasoline Model:Major Developments and Issues Short-Run Motor Gasoline Demand Model EIA Energy Outlook, Modeling and Data Conference March 28, 2007 Washington, DC Michael A. Morris Industry Economist Price Elasticity Range of estimates Most short-run estimates are between zero and -0.5 Most long-run estimates are between -0.5 and -1.5 Decline in price responses EIA short-run estimates: 1977 to 1989: -0.05 to -0.08 1994 to 2006: -0.02 to -0.04 Income Elasticity Most estimates are between 0.2 and 1.5 Estimates have declined over time EIA: 1977 to 1989: .85 1994 to 2006: .50 Possible Reasons for Elasticity Declines Motor vehicle travel is a mature product Fuel efficiencies have increased Real cost per mile is lower Gasoline’s share of disposable income has declined Growth in Vehicles per 1000 People Has Slowed Sharply Ratio of Passenger VMT to Real Personal Disposable Income (1966=1) Motor Gasoline Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Inflation-Adjusted Motor Gasoline Cost per Mile (1982-84 $) Motor Gasoline Expenditures as a Share of Personal Disposable Income Short-Term Energy Outlook Motor Gasoline Model Total motor gasoline demand = Highway demand + Non-highway demand Highway demand accounts for 97 percent of total motor gasoline demand. It is derived from the following identity: Highway Demand = Highway Travel Fuel Efficiency Each component is estimated separately. Highway Motor Gasoline Demand is Highly Seasonal Highway Motor Gasoline Demand Is Becoming Less Seasonal Seasonally-Adjusted Per-Capita Motor Gasoline-Related Vehicle Miles Traveled Per Day Seasonally-Adjusted Log Per-Capita Motor Gasoline-Related Vehicle Miles Traveled Per Day Seasonally-Adjusted Per-Capita Motor Gasoline-Related Vehicle Miles Traveled Per Day (Alternative estimation with lagged dependent variable) Seasonally-Adjusted Motor Gasoline-Related Fuel Efficiencies Seasonally-Adjusted Motor Gasoline-Related Fuel