The Four-step Travel Model课件.pptVIP

The Four-step Travel Model GEOG 111 211A – Fall 2004 Outline Background Role of Simulation General Process Example of Most Popular Simulation Model Examples of Other Ideas Summary Needs Identify Projects for the Region Use Formal Accepted Technique(s) to Estimate Project Impacts Simulate the Region for the Next 20 Years Create Scenarios for BEFORE and AFTER a Project or Group of Projects How Do we use Simulation Models? Create a Comprehensive Plan of how we want the area to be in the future Propose projects designed to achieve the goals of the Comprehensive Plan Test Scenarios implementing different projects and forecast their effects Determine what projects should be continued to next stage Present recommendations to decision makers Project Types New Highways (e.g., bypass-ring roads) New Management Activities (e.g., park ride, signal systems ) New Land Uses (e.g., a new industry, a new residential neighborhood) New Technologies??????? (maybe in management) The Context Urban Transportation Planning System (UTPS) Urban Transportation Modeling System TEA 21 made it also A Statewide Transportation Planning System Technology should be added (see Pennplan) Associate quantitative estimates with performance measures as in the monitoring part (see PennPlan) Four-step scheme followed today in many MPOs Four-step travel model is limited but popular! The Sequential Forecasting Process the Urban Transportation Planning System (UTPS)[adapted from Papacostas Prevedouros, 1993] Four step in large MPOs Inventory of facilities Opportunity to think strategically Show the impact of projects on air quality Provide report of emissions inventory Tool for policy assessment PSRC example follows! What Other Steps Are Required? Forecast future development (business, roadways, and housing) Model the area’s traffic network Estimate model of the area’s traffic network in the future Make changes to network characteristics in the future model Compare network performance under differe