A Bayesian approach to decision-making under u0ncertainty An application to real-time forecasting in the river Rhine外文翻译.pdfVIP

Journal of Hydrology (2008) 356, 56– 69 a v a i l a b l e at w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m jou rnal homep age: www.elsevier.c om/locate/jhydro l A Bayesian approach to decision-making under uncertainty: An application to real-time forecasting in the river Rhine P. Reggiani a,b,*, A.H. Weerts b a Section of Hydraulic Structures and Probabilistic Design, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600GA Delft, The Netherlands b Deltares-Delft Hydraulics, P.O. Box 177, 2600MH Delft, The Netherlands Received 31 May 2007; received in revised form 13 March 2008; accepted 31 March 2008 KEYWORDS Summary Enhanced ability to forecast peak discharges remains the most relevant non- Uncertainty; structural measure for flood protection. Extended forecasting lead times are desirable Decision support; as they facilitate mitigating action and response in case of extreme discharges. Forecasts Operational flood remain however affected by uncertainty as an exact prognosis of water levels is inherently forecasting; impossible. Here, we implement a dedicated uncertainty processor, that can be used Bayesian revision; within operational flood forecasting systems. River Rhine The processor is designed to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. The scientific approach at the basis of the uncertainty processor is general and indepen- dent of the deterministic models used. It is based on Bayesian revision of prior knowledge on the basis of past evidence on model performance against observations. The revision of