基于跟驰理论对车辆尾撞事故模型建立的研究.doc

辽宁警察学院 本科毕业论文 基于跟驰理论对车辆尾撞事故 模型建立的研究 论 文 作 者： 马牧亭 专业（方向）：刑事科学技术（道路交通安全方向） 年 级： 2010级 学 号： 103424102 指 导 教 师： 王德章教授 完 成 日 期： 2014年2月28日  中文摘要 本文基于跟驰理论展开对尾撞事故进行理论与实际研究，首先提出尾随车的加速度与相对速度成线性关系，与车速、反应时间及车头间距成非线性关系，在微观上尾撞事故的发生与这些因素密切相关；其次，基于交通流特性，提出尾撞事故的发生与交通量、车流密度、车速这些因素存在宏观可调控关系。通过描述当前的交通发展现状，从宏观交通流角度，微观驾驶员、车辆角度对尾撞事故进行了分析。后文在交通流基本要素方面和车辆跟驰特性方面进行了实地数据调查，并援引了国外先进的整理过的数据，在此基础上，进行了对车辆尾撞事故模型建立的研究，得出相应的线性与非线性跟驰模型，后对模型的稳定性与正确性进行了检验。最后分别从宏观管理与微观控制角度提出解决尾撞事故的对策。 关键词： 跟驰理论 尾撞事故 模型建立 ABSTRACT In this paper, I do the theoretical and actual research on the vehicle rear end collision based on car following theory. First proposed that there is a linear relationship between the trailing vehicle acceleration and the relative velocity; there is a non-linear relationship between the trailing vehicle acceleration and the speed, reaction time and headway. At the micro, rear end collision is closely related to these factors. And proposed that the occurrence of the rear end collision can be macroscopically regulated by the traffic volume, density, speed based on traffic flow characteristics. Through the description of the current status of the development of traffic, I analyze the rear end collision from the angle of the traffic flow, driver, vehicle. After the field investigation and quoting foreigner advanced data in terms of the basic elements of traffic flow and car following characteristics, I do the research in the model building of rear end collision and introduce the linear and nonlinear car following model. Next, I have verified the stability and the correctness of the model. Finally, I put forward some solutions, including the macro management and micro control, to solve the rear end collision. Key words: Car following theory，Rear end collision， Model building 目 录 引言...........................................................1 1 尾撞事故的交通现状..............