Dynamic risk management in petroleum project investment based on a variable precision rough set mode.pdfVIP

ARTICLE IN PRESS TFS-17217; No of Pages 11 Technological Forecasting Social Change xxx (2010) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting Social Change Dynamic risk management in petroleum project investment based on a variable precision rough set model Gang Xie a,⁎, Wuyi Yue b, Shouyang Wang a, Kin Keung Lai c a Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), 55 Zhongguancun East Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China b Department of Intelligence and Informatics, Konan University, 8-9-1 Okamoto, Kobe 658-8501, Japan c Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: In this paper, an adaptive algorithm is designed for dynamic risk management in petroleum Received 30 January 2009 Received in revised form 7 October 2009 project investment based on a variable precision rough set (VPRS) model. In risk management, Accepted 30 November 2009 at each stage of decision-making, experts are invited to identify risk indices and support the Available online xxxx decision-maker in evaluating the risk exposure (RE) of individual projects. The VPRS model is used to mine risk rules and determine the significance of risk indices from RE decision tables. Keywords: Considering that there are multiple risks involved in any petroleum project investment, we use Dynamic risk management multi-objective programming to obtain the optimal selection