Power System Operation Risk Assessment Using Credibility Theory英文资料.pdfVIP

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 23, NO. 3, AUGUST 2008 1309 Power System Operation Risk Assessment Using Credibility Theory Yongqing Feng, Wenchuan Wu, Member, IEEE, Boming Zhang, Senior Member, IEEE, and Wenyuan Li, Fellow, IEEE Abstract—Failure probability of system components may vary R Set of real numbers. with the changes of weather, environment and other operation conditions. The time-varying or condition-based failure proba- Ch Primitive chance of random fuzzy event. bility can be represented using a fuzzy model. Based on credibility theory, this paper presents a novel operation risk assessment Mean chance of random fuzzy event. method to handle the two-fold uncertainty combining randomness Probability measure of random event. and fuzziness in power system operations. In the proposed method, a random fuzzy model is developed to accommodate impacts due pro Subscript representing randomness. to various operation conditions and other factors on the failure probability of system components. The WECC nine-bus system, fuz Subscript representing fuzziness. IEEE 14-bus system and an actual power system in Northeast Random fuzzy variable representing China were used to demonstrate feasibility and applicability of the presented method. The operation risk assessment module using uncertainty of component the proposed method has been embedded in the EMS system in a c