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《《Risk Analysis in investment appraisal》.pdf
Risk Analysis
in
Investment Appraisal
by
Savvakis C. Savvides
Published in “Project Appraisal”,
Volume 9 Number 1, pages 3-18, March 1994
© Beech Tree Publishing 1994
Reprinted with permission
*
ABSTRACT
This paper was prepared for the purpose of presenting the methodology and uses of the
Monte Carlo simulation technique as applied in the evaluation of investment projects to
analyse and assess risk. The first part of the paper highlights the importance of risk
analysis in investment appraisal. The second part presents the various stages in the
application of the risk analysis process. The third part examines the interpretation of the
results generated by a risk analysis application including investment decision criteria and
various measures of risk based on the expected value concept. The final part draws some
conclusions regarding the usefulness and limitations of risk analysis in investment
appraisal.
The author is grateful to Graham Glenday of Harvard University for his encouragement
and assistance in pursuing this study and in the development of the RiskMaster and
Riskease computer software which put into practice the concepts presented in this paper.
Thanks are also due to Professor John Evans of York University, Canada, Baher El
Hifnawi, Professor Glenn Jenkins of Harvard University and numerous colleagues at the
Cyprus Development Bank for their assistance.
* Savvakis C. Savvides is a Project Manager at the Cyprus Development Bank, a
Research Fellow of the International Tax Program at
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