《dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation》.pdf

Climate Dynamics (2005) 24: 347–354 DOI 10.1007/s00382-004-0505-y Anders Levermann Æ Alexa Griesel Matthias Hofmann Æ Marisa Montoya Stefan Rahmstorf Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation Received: 9 July 2004 / Accepted: 15 November 2004 / Published online: 23 February 2005 Springer-Verlag 2005 Abstract Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER- is often overlooked (Vellinga and Wood, 2002; Schwartz 3a, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to and Randall, 2003). a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In Paleoclimatic data indicate that strong variations of addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the the THC have occurred in the past (see references in deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level (Clark et al., 2002; Rahmstorf, 2002)). Model simula- change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change tions suggest that global warming accompanied by an in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of increased freshwater input into the North Atlantic could this dynamic effect can locally reach up to 1 m, result in major changes in THC strength (Manabe and depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions Stouffer, 1993; Stocker and Schmittner, 1997; Rahm- the rate of change can be up to 20–25 mm/yr. The storf, 1999; Rahmstorf and Ganopolski, 1999; Wood emerging patterns are discussed with respect to the et al., 1999; Schaeffer et al., 2002). Recent observations oceanic circulation changes. Most prominent is a south- show an increase by 7% in river discharge to the Arctic north gradient reflecting the changes in geostrophic Ocean (Peterson et al., 2002) between 1936 and 1999 and surface currents. Our results suggest that an analysi