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《Lesson 12 Slides1》.pdf
ETF2121/ETF5912
DATA ANALYSIS IN BUSINESS
Week 12
Application of Regression Analysis to
Time Series Data
1
Application of Regression Analysis to Time
Series Data
• A time series is a stream of historical data observed over time, such as
weekly sales, yearly profits, daily stock prices, etc.
• Predicting or forecasting the time series is the estimation of how it will
continue into the future.
• To simplify things, we will assume that the times of observations are
equally spaced.
– This is not a great restriction because most business and economic series are
measured daily, monthly, quarterly, or yearly and so will be equally spaced.
• There are many methods that one can use to forecast time series.
– We will focus on using the regression analysis methods to forecast the time
series.
2
Application of Regression Analysis to Time
Series Data
• With time series regression as opposed to regression with
cross sectional data, one of the main problems to be
addressed when checking the assumptions is a possible lack
of independence in the residuals which need to be
examined.
• We may also need to allow for time‐related effects as trend
and seasonality.
• To allow for various time‐related features in our data, new
explanatory variables can be created.
3
Application of Regression Analysis to
Time Series Data
• Time variable: If we include a time trend in the
regression model, we create a new explanatory
variable takes on consecutive time values.
• Seasonal va
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