《[正式稿]政府行为支出效率与最优政府规模》.pdf

政府行为、动态支出效率估算与最优政府规模 摘要：本文使用中国 28 个省份 1985‐2006 年的面板数据，通过建立指标体系使用 Bootstrap 非参数两阶段 DEA 方法测量了政府支出的动态支出效率及其波动状况。同时，把 该效率得分引入 Barro 1990 内生增长模型，重构了 Angelopoulos 等 2008 建立的政府支 出与经济增长的关系来估计支出效率和政府支出规模的增长效应。本文的研究主要得出两个 结论，一是我们证明了政府支出与经济增长呈现倒“U”型增长关系，实证结果显示政府支 出对经济增长有显著的积极影响，还没有达到对经济增长负效应的支出规模；并且这种最优 支出规模取决于政府支出效率水平，而非支出总规模。本文也计算出了地方政府支出效率的 平均临界值和据此计算了最优的政府支出规模占 GDP 的比重 34.55%。二是在市场经济绩效 和利益的激励下，当政府支出等于或低于最优规模时，政府支出对经济增长具有显著的积极 影响，增加政府支出能提高支出效率和资源配置效率；更高的支出效率有利于降低政府最优 支出规模。 关键词：Bootstrap 两阶段 DEA 估计；支出效率估算；最优政府规模 Government?Behavior,?the?Dynamic?Estimation?of?Expenditure?Efficiency?and Optimal?Size?of?Government Lin Jiang Zhou Shaojun （ Lingnan College of Sun Yat-sen University 510275 ） Abstract :This article uses panel data of 28 provinces in China during 1985-2006, and draws on non-parametric two-stage DEA Bootstrap method to measure the efficiency of dynamic government expenditure and fluctuations through the establishment of an index system. Meanwhile, then introduces the efficiency score into Barro 1990 endogenous growth model, and reconstructs the relationshiop of optimal government expenditure to economic growth which was established by Angelopoulos et al 2008 Studies conducted by this article result in two points. Firstly, government expenditure and economic growth is in an inverted U-shaped curve relationship, and government expenditure has an obviously positive impact on economic growth, which depends on the optimal size of government expenditure levels of efficiency, rather than expenditure scale. This article has also calculated the average efficiency of local government expenditure with a critical value and according to the critical value it has also calculated the optimal size of government expenditure level 34.55%. Secondly, drived by economic performance and interest in the market incentives, gover